Let’s take a minute to enjoy the analysis of someone who’s both a foreign policy expert and a highly skilled writer.
Oliver Schell is director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations at the Asia Society and former Dean of the Graduate School of Journalism at the University of California, Berkeley.
My journalism training advised against using big words, and Schell clearly missed that class. But he understands the way diplomacy works — and doesn’t.
Next week, Chinese President Xi Jinping visits Washington in a follow-up “summit” to President Trump’s visit to Beijing in May.
“The United States’ epic twentieth-century successes in diplomacy set dangerously high expectations,” Schell writes in Foreign Affairs. “Today, as U.S.-Chinese relations spiral into an ever more adversarial state, the longing for another breakthrough delivered by ‘great men’ is especially acute.”
But, Schell says: “The same limitations that crimped the May summit will constrain the upcoming one. The problem is not simply that the United States and China have different ideologies and political systems. It is also that neither of their leaders is suited to the kind of bargaining their current rivalry demands. Xi equates compromise with weakness and has a hard time understanding the give-a-little-to-get-a-little logic that is the heart and soul of diplomacy. And Trump is so contradictory and impetuous that his pandering, “tech bro” side is in such an uncomfortable state of tension with his belligerent side that effective diplomacy becomes almost impossible.”
“In the past, the United States and China achieved breakthroughs when conditions were just right and leaders with great diplomatic acuity were in charge. The circumstances today are less favorable. Despite Trump’s simulacrum of camaraderie, he and Xi simply do not have the symmetries to build the kind of genuine fraternity and trust needed to resolve deep structural problems. As long as these two men lead their respective countries, the likelihood is that their summits will barely be able to manage the rivalry at best. At worst, they may exacerbate it by letting push come to shove.”
So — just as U.S. “tech bros” warn of the need for cooperation with China to save us from being extinguished by AI, we find ourselves with leaders least-skilled to achieve it.
Also in the news
UN secretary general urges global AI cooperation, saying the world can’t afford ‘a race to the bottom on AI safety’
As the world debates AI risks, China closes the technology gap with U.S.
Satellites show Earth lost more than 12 trillion tons of ice from Greenland, Antarctica since 1979
U.S. troops must prepare to fight around the moon, says top Trump military adviser Gen. Dan Caine
AP: Trump administration’s change in human trafficking policy could make some minors easier to deport
House passes, 262-159, long-delayed sanctions bill targeting Russia, Iran, sends it to Trump for signature
House passes bill to prevent data centers’ energy costs from being passed on to families, small businesses, on 417-3 vote
House votes by unanimous consent to hold Leon Black in contempt of Congress over refusal to comply with subpoenas in Epstein investigation
Trump administration has cut or frozen up to $177 billion in federal grants since start of second term, affecting all states
Staffing problems stall federal investigations of missing and killed Native Americans
National Park Service is steamrolling through review of Trump’s arch
Fencing goes up around main Kennedy Center building after Trump-aligned board votes to close it for repairs
Heather Cox Richardson on Kennedy Center, oil prices, Federal Reserve, more
Trump-aligned groups are pouring money into midterm races, in final sprint toward Election Day
Man who criticized ICE was protected by First Amendment, judge rules
Margaret Sullivan: ‘The truth about the midterms — and the media’s failure to convey it’
Federal Reserve unanimously votes to raise interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, the first increase in 3 years
OpenAI discloses 6 new instances of ‘concerning’ AI behavior
Dr. Nicole Saphier, Trump’s 3rd surgeon general pick, faces questions over her vaccine stance at Senate confirmation hearing
You can call the Capitol switchboard, (202) 224-3121, and be connected to the offices of your representative and senators. To email your House member and your two senators, you can connect to their websites at Congress.gov. Most lawmakers seem to only accept emails from their constituents, but these leaders accept emails from Americans nationwide, at:
House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries
Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer
Senate Majority Leader John Thune