As European leaders and Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau gather in Ukraine this morning to show their support on the three-year anniversary of the Russian invasion, Foreign Affairs Magazine has published an article on what an actual political strategy for ending the war would look like.
“In its final year, the Biden administration, in which I served as senior director for strategic planning at the National Security Council, prepared Ukraine for talks in 2025 regardless of who won the U.S. election in 2024,” writes article author Thomas Wright.
Putting pressure on Russia to negotiate
“After the unsuccessful counteroffensive of 2023, the administration helped Ukraine create three vectors of action that would weaken Moscow’s ability to prosecute the war indefinitely and thus put pressure on it to negotiate seriously,” Wright says.
One vector was a strategy of asymmetric attrition. According to the Defense Department, Russian casualties are more than 700,000 since the war began and averaging 1,500 a day. Moscow’s attempts to open a new pipeline of troops from North Korea seem to have failed because North Korean casualty numbers have been so high that Pyongyang hasn’t sent many more.
So if he wants to fight a long war, Russian President Putin is facing the prospect of having to order a mobilization later this year, which he's tried to avoid in order to shield ordinary Russians from the reality and pain of the battlefront.
The second vector was support for Ukraine’s long-strike campaign, initially through backing its indigenous drone program and then with the provision of long-range ATACMS.
The third vector was ramping up sanctions on Russia, including on 50 banks and on its energy sector, to complicate Moscow’s ability to finance a long war. One effect was a spike in Russian inflation, which exceeded 9.5 percent, with interest rates more than 21 percent at the end of 2024.
The United States also sent enough artillery rounds, rockets, air defense, and fighting vehicles to enable Ukraine to fight through 2025, Wright says. “A $50 billion allied loan, leveraging frozen Russian sovereign assets, has given Ukraine a financial lifeline.”
“The result is that Russia is stuck. Moscow still seeks to dominate Ukraine, but it is gaining only slivers of territory in eastern Ukraine with very little prospect of making sweeping gains. It failed to cause Ukraine’s collapse through energy strikes over the winter. It still has not regained all of the Russian territory seized by Ukraine in Kursk, more than six months after Ukraine’s incursion. And all of this has been compounded by the fall of its ally Bashar al-Assad in Syria and the likely end of its military presence there.”
U.S. interests in Ukraine’s victory
— If Russia wins in Ukraine, it will be a victory as well for each of the three countries that have assisted it there — China, North Korea and Iran.
— The survival of a free and independent Ukraine would benefit the United States. Ukraine would emerge from the war with Europe’s third largest military, after Russia and Turkey. It's pioneered cutting-edge technological developments, especially on drone warfare and the application of artificial intelligence to warfighting. It would share this technology with the United States and help Europe renovate its defense industrial base.
— A Russian victory would increase the threat to U.S. allies Lithuania, Poland, Latvia and Estonia.
— “Finally, and perhaps most important, the United States has an interest in a stable and peaceful Europe.” Europe is the United States’ biggest source of foreign investment and largest export market, as well as a key ally.
Problems for negotiations
“The primary problem that has to be solved in negotiations is that Russia wants a neutral and weakened Ukraine, whereas Ukraine wants sufficient security capabilities and guarantees so it can deter and defend against any future attack,” Wright says.
Putin said in a speech in June, “Ukraine should adopt a neutral, non-aligned status, be nuclear-free, and undergo demilitarization and denazification,” and he demanded that Ukraine cede the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia provinces.
Since then, Putin also has described Ukraine President Zelensky as an illegitimate leader with no authority to sign a treaty to end the war. And Putin has demanded strict limits on the size and scope of Ukraine’s military, including a prohibition on “offensive” weapons, an effective Russian veto on any international security guarantees to Ukraine, and western security assurances for Russia.
The Ukrainian government’s official position is that it wants all of Ukraine’s sovereign territory, including Crimea, back, as well as membership in NATO. There are, however, indications that Ukraine would be willing to accept a freeze of the territorial line if it came without legal recognition of Russian gains and if allies supported Ukraine’s right to regain the territory by nonmilitary means. Most important for Ukrainians, it would be compensated with ironclad security guarantees for the rest of the country and with a pledge of political and economic integration into the West.
Four possible outcomes have been envisioned
— NATO membership for Ukraine
— The “Israel model,” with the United States providing enough military and intelligence assistance to enable Ukraine to deter and, if necessary, defeat Russian forces without direct intervention by other nations.
— A European security guarantee
— Ukraine neutrality
A “good enough” outcome
“If it backs Ukraine in negotiations and uses the leverage available to it, the Trump administration could secure the Israel model for Ukraine — the construction of a powerful future force with the ability to strike Russian territory if it were attacked, backed by a promise of indirect U.S. support in the event of a new war,” Wright says. “This deal would not be perfect, as it leaves Ukraine without external security guarantees.”
Whle NATO membership for Ukraine isn’t acceptable to President Trump, it could be pursued by a different U.S. administration in the future, Wright says.
"The Israel model provides a viable pathway to a free and independent Ukraine with the ability to defend itself and deter future attack. And over time, it may serve as a stepping stone to a more durable and just peace,” Wright says.
Here is a gift link for the article.