What consumers can expect amid China tariffs

"Trade experts say that companies have stockpiled enough inventory in recent months that, if the White House reverses course soon and significantly drops tariffs on China, much of the pain for the U.S. economy and consumers can be avoided," The New York Times reports.

Data from the Institute for Supply Management shows U.S. inventories at their highest level in more than two years.

Many firms say tariffs above 50 percent on Chinese imports are enough to stop trade entirely, the Times says. With tariffs now at a minimum of 145 percent, and in some cases much higher, that would mean the Trump administration likely would have to drop its China tariffs by at least 100 percentage points to meaningfully restart the flow of goods, says the Times.

The reason consumers haven’t felt many effects of tariffs yet is because it takes 20 to 40 days for a container ship to travel across the Pacific Ocean. Last month, the number of container ships departing China for the United States dropped by about a third, says the Times.

Then it takes another one to 10 days for Chinese goods to make their way by train or truck to various cities around the country, economists at Apollo Global Management said in a recent report. 

That means the higher tariffs on China that went into effect at the beginning of April have just started to result in a drop in the number of ships arriving at American ports.

By late this month or early June, consumers could start to see some empty shelves, with layoffs for retailers and logistics industries.

Also, on May 2, the Trump administration eliminated a loophole that had enabled Americans to buy goods directly from China without paying tariffs if the package was worth less than $800.

So American shoppers are seeing higher prices when they check out at Amazon, Shein and Temu, and Chinese exporters are scrambling to find buyers outside the United States.  

Here is a Times article on the effects of the tariffs on China’s factories and workers. 

Here is a Q-and-A on packages worth less than $800, from Wired.