I’ve been meaning to summarize this New York Times article from Dec. 31:
Traditional nonpartisan pollsters, after years of trial and error and tweaking of their methodologies, produced polls that largely reflected reality —but they also conducted fewer polls than in the past, according to a Times review.
And “that paucity allowed their accurate findings to be overwhelmed by an onrush of partisan polls in key states that more readily suited the needs of the sprawling and voracious political content machine — one sustained by ratings and clicks, and famished for fresh data and compelling narratives,” says the Times.
"The skewed red-wave surveys polluted polling averages, which are relied upon by campaigns, donors, voters and the news media,” the Times says. "It fed the home-team boosterism of an expanding array of right-wing media outlets — from Steve Bannon’s 'War Room' podcast and 'The Charlie Kirk Show' to Fox News and its top-rated prime-time lineup. And it spilled over into coverage by mainstream news organizations, including The Times, that amplified the alarms being sounded about potential Democratic doom."
Other pollsters lacked experience, such as two high-school juniors in Pennsylvania who started Patriot Polling and quickly found their surveys included on the statistical analysis website FiveThirtyEight, the Times says.
Fox News' own polling unit, "respected throughout the news industry for its nonpartisanship and transparency," wasn't detecting a Republican wave, says the Times. But in September, Sean Hannity’s prime-time show began showcasing pollsters Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar and Matt Towery of InsiderAdvantage, who predicted that the GOP would win races in Pennsylvania, Arizona and Georgia, among other places.
Unmentioned was that the Fox News Poll, covered in the network’s straight-news programming, showed all those races leaning Democratic.
“The culture of programming does not take kindly to narratives of ‘we’re behind’ or ‘we’re losing,’” says Jason Damata, founder and chief executive of Fabric Media, a media and advertising consultancy. “Fox has a profound understanding of what’s going to keep audiences coming back and being engaged.”
"Shaping perceptions across the ideological spectrum, the steady flow of data predicting a red wave prompted real-world decision-making that members of both parties now say could have tilted the balance of power in Congress,” the Times says.
“These frothy polls had a substantial, distorting impact on how people spent money — on campaign strategy, and on people’s expectations going into the election,” says Steven Law, chief executive of the Republicans’ Senate Leadership Fund, which spent $280 million on the midterms. Its own private polling didn’t show a red wave, the Times says.
"There were ample reasons to expect a strong 2022 for Republicans,” says the Times. "A president’s party tends to lose congressional seats in midterms. Soaring inflation and Mr. Biden’s languishing approval ratings only added to GOP hopes. But the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade and the stolen-election fantasies of right-wing Republican candidates blew unexpected wind in Democrats’ sails.”