Over the past decade, the U.S. population grew at the second slowest rate since the government started counting in 1790, the result of a slowdown in immigration and a declining birthrate, the Census Bureau reported on Monday.
There were 331,449,281 of us last year, a 7.4 percent increase over the previous decade, the lowest growth rate since the Great Depression.
Experts say the slow growth rate reflects the combination of an aging population, slowing immigration and the impact of the Great Recession more than a decade ago, which led many young adults to delay marriage and families.
And the 2020 census was conducted amid a once-in-a-century coronavirus pandemic, wildfires, hurricanes, allegations of political interference with the Trump administration’s failed effort to add a citizenship question, fluctuating deadlines and lawsuits.
The bureau also reported on Monday changes to the country's political map reflecting the ongoing trend of the South and West gaining population — and the congressional representation that goes with it — at the expense of the Northeast and Midwest.
Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon each gained one seat. Texas gained two.
Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia lost seats. And so did California, a long-time leader in population growth, which lost a seat for the first time in its 170-year history of statehood.
The new state population counts will be used to reapportion seats in Congress and in the Electoral College. The count is critical in determining billions of dollars in federal funding as well as state and local planning around everything from schools to housing to hospitals.
Congressional reapportionment is a zero sum game, with states dividing up the 435 House seats based on population advantages that can be very small. If New York had counted 89 more residents, the state would have kept its seat and Minnesota would have lost one, officials say.
The reshuffling of the congressional map moves seats from blue states to red ones, giving Republicans a clear, immediate advantage, says The Associated Press. The party will have complete control of drawing the congressional maps in Texas, Florida and North Carolina.
And although Democrats control the process in Oregon, Democratic lawmakers there have agreed to give Republicans an equal say in redistricting in exchange for a commitment to stop blocking bills. In Democratic Colorado, a nonpartisan commission will draw the lines, meaning the party won’t have total control in a single expanding state’s redistricting.
For now, that population shift gives Republicans the opportunity to shape new congressional districts to maximize the influence of their voters and have a major advantage in upcoming elections — possibly enough to win back control of the House.
But in the long term, it’s not clear that the migration is good news for Republicans. Many of the fastest growing states are increasingly competitive political battlegrounds where the new arrivals — including many young people and people of color — could at some point give Democrats the edge.
In California, home prices have soared, contributing to a stream of residents leaving for other Western states. Those relocations have helped turn Colorado and Nevada into Democratic states and made Arizona competitive.
Gina Raimondo, the secretary of commerce, called the count “complete and accurate” at a news conference Monday, but questions and potential challenges to the data will most likely surface when the Census Bureau releases the detailed demographic files for each state, says The New York Times. Those files, which are due out by Sept. 30, are the basis for redrawing electoral districts.
And that starts "the most politically uncomfortable and unpredictable year Congress must face each decade, when new maps drawn in redistricting force veteran incumbents into retirement, turn former friends into fierce rivals and pitch safe-seat House members into hotly contested elections,” says Politico.
Here is a closer look at the 13 states that will gain or lose political power and federal money, from AP.