Well, Tom Goldstein, founder of the influential SCOTUSblog, thinks so, after court swing voter Justice Anthony Kennedy announced on Wednesday that he’s retiring.
And those who’ve hoped that Donald Trump would be a blip in the history of the American democratic experiment are going to have to find other things to hope for.
Trump’s biggest presidential achievement to date had been his nomination to the court of Neil Gorsuch, “who has already become one of the most conservative justices,” according to Lawrence Hurley of Reuters, a longtime reporter on the court.
Now Trump is to make his second court appointment in his 17 months in office, and that person potentially will affect Americans' lives for generations.
"We have to pick one that’s going to be there for 40 years, 45 years,” Trump said at a rally in North Dakota on Wednesday night.
If Republicans unite behind Trump’s selection, there’s little Democrats can do to stop it, notes The Associated Press. Republicans changed the Senate's rules last year so Supreme Court nominees can't be filibustered, meaning only 51 votes will be needed to confirm.
The prospects for the nominee’s confirmation most likely will come down to the way a handful of moderate senators vote, says The New York Times. Republican Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska are considered key votes in the narrowly divided Senate, as are Sens. Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Joe Manchin of West Virginia, all Democrats up for re-election in states that Trump won.
Here are predictions of what a more conservative court will do, from Joan Biskupic, another longtime reporter on the court:
— Abortion: "It is possible a new conservative majority would trim the right to an abortion — for example with more restrictions on physicians, clinics and the timing of a termination” rather than reversing altogether Roe v. Wade, which made abortion legal nationwide in 1973.
— Same-sex marriage: “It is likely … that the new conservative majority would defer more to religious interests and permit a broad range of exemptions to laws intended to protect people based on sexual orientation."
— Affirmative action: Campus affirmative action could be prohibited.
If there is a new swing vote, it will be Chief Justice John Roberts, according to Biskupic and others. Justices Clarence Thomas and Gorsuch are farthest on the right; Samuel Alito falls generally between them and Roberts, she says.
Here is a list of the possible nominees, from the Times.