Citizen Cartwright

Tax bill: A 'kiss to the donor class?'

The legislation being debated Thursday on the Senate floor will help the middle class, President Trump said during a speech Wednesday in St. Charles, Mo.

"Our focus is on helping the folks who work in the mail rooms and the machine shops of America," Trump said. "The plumbers. The carpenters. The cops. The teachers. The truck drivers … The people that like me best."

Yet numerous analyses have found that the bill disproportionately benefits the wealthy and even hurts poorer Americans over time, says a Washington Post article by Erica Werner and others. (Werner joined the Post Nov. 20 after two decades at The Associated Press. I’ve long respected what in my observation is her unbiased reporting.)

In fact, Bloomberg says Americans making between $500,000 and $1 million a year would get the biggest percentage increases in their after-tax income, citing an analysis by the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service.

Economists and tax experts are overwhelmingly skeptical that the House and Senate tax bills can generate meaningful job growth and economic expansion, says a New York Times analysis. Many see the legislation not as a product of genuine deliberation, but as a transfer of wealth to corporations and affluent individuals — both generous purveyors of campaign contributions, the paper says.

“When you put all these pieces together, what you’re left with is we are squandering a giant sum of money,” says Edward Kleinbard, a former chief of staff at the Congressional Joint Committee on Taxation who teaches law at the University of Southern California. “It’s not aimed at growth. It is not aimed at the middle class. It is at every turn carefully engineered to deliver a kiss to the donor class.”

A friend of my husband’s recently retired from Congress after becoming tired of the uncertainty that a billionaire could torpedo any lawmaker's re-election campaign at the last minute.

With the tax bill "critical" to the political future of the president and the Republican Party, GOP leaders are working hard to get the votes of holdouts.

For example, the bill includes provisions to allow oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, which Alaska GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski (and her father, who preceded her in the Senate) has sought for her entire career.

“Right now, Lisa Murkowski may well represent the 50th vote, and that puts her in the driver seat to ask for whatever she wants. The things she seems to want most is opening the Arctic refuge,” says Niel Lawrence, Alaska program director for the Natural Resources Defense Council.

Murkowski, whose opposition helped to sink previous GOP efforts to repeal and replace Obamacare, said on Wednesday that she'll vote for the tax bill.

In "a rare move by one of the most prominent editorial boards in the country," the Times on Wednesday openly urged voters to contact their lawmakers to express opposition to the Senate tax bill, Politico reports.

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Likelihood that tax bill will pass Senate is 'strengthened considerably'

So says The New York Times, after approval of the bill Tuesday by the Senate Budget Committee and moves to ease the objections of Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine.

The party-line committee vote came after Sens Bob Corker, Tenn., and Ron Johnson, Wis., were assured that their concerns were being addressed.

In a statement, Corker said he backed the bill after reaching a tentative deal on a "trigger" to "ensure greater fiscal responsibility should economic growth estimates not be realized." He said the proposal needs to be finalized but that he's "encouraged."

Other GOP senators said Corker’s idea is a non-starter for them.

"I am not going to vote to implement automatic tax increases on the American people," Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., said, according to Bloomberg. “If I do that, consider me drunk. I’m not voting for that.”

President Trump signaled openness to changes sought by Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, which include paying federal subsidies to help lower-income Americans afford health coverage and allowing Americans to continue deducting up to $10,000 in property taxes from their taxable income.

“It’s certainly progress,” said Collins, who's had a central role in derailing GOP healthcare bills this year.

Collins said she wants to see the health legislation enacted before the differences between the House and Senate tax bills are resolved.

The changes sought by Collins, Johnson and others would require finding offsetting revenue elsewhere in the bill that could create problems for other Republicans.

The fate of the bill could come down to the vote of Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., says a separate Times article.

He’s been "fairly tight-lipped" about his views on the legislation, saying he sees some problems with the existing bill but is waiting for a final plan before making a decision.

Steve Schmidt, a GOP strategist and longtime adviser to McCain, says if lawmakers mean what they've said over the years about fiscal restraint, they should oppose this bill.

“We’re about to find out the degree to which that viewpoint about fiscal discipline was political rhetoric or fundamental principle,” Schmidt says. “If it was political rhetoric, then this bill will pass. If those statements were principle based, then this bill will fail.”

The full Senate is to vote Wednesday on whether to proceed with consideration of the bill.

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Senate tax bill faces 'crucial' committee vote Tuesday

Two Republicans on the Senate Budget Committee say they won’t vote to send the bill to the Senate floor unless changes they want are incorporated first.

Sen. Ron Johnson, Wis., wants a bigger tax cut for pass-through businesses. Sen. Bob Corker, Tenn., wants a provision that would increase taxes if the bill doesn’t generate enough economic growth to cover the $1.4 trillion in revenue losses it’s estimated to produce over 10 years.

Each of their votes is crucial, says Bloomberg: The committee is composed of 12 Republicans and 11 Democrats, so a single GOP senator can block the legislation from floor consideration.

But Politico cites budget experts as saying there likely are ways to take the measure directly to the floor even if it’s voted down in the committee. Politico doesn’t say how that would work.

The changes currently being considered would exacerbate the bill’s divide between the rich and the middle class, says The New York Times.

On Monday, Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont. said he would oppose the bill unless it’s changed to make the tax treatment more generous for pass-through entities.

Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., whose vote was in question, said in a Fox News op-ed that he plans to vote for the bill.

Also on Monday, Republican Sens. James Lankford of Oklahoma and Jeff Flake of Arizona joined Corker in his call for a tax-increase trigger.

Other GOP senators in the “uncertain” column, according to The Hill: Susan Collins of Maine; John McCain of Arizona, Jerry Moran of Kansas and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska.

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Congressional chaos in a time of Trump: the year-end to-do list

Of course, Congress always is racing at this time of year, with unfinished spending bills invariably crammed into a year-end package that includes who knows what.

And then there’s this year, with uge issues colliding with the uge unpredictability of the president.

Let’s just go with the rundown of Andrew Taylor, longtime reporter for The Associated Press.

"The crush of unfinished business facing lawmakers would be daunting even if Washington were functioning at peak efficiency,” he says. "It’s an agenda whose core items — tax cuts, a potential government shutdown, lots of leftover spending bills — could unravel just as easily as advance in factionalism, gamesmanship and a toxic political environment.”

"Taxes have gotten all the attention so far, but the showdown over a potential shutdown right before Christmas could soon take center stage,” he says. "Democrats are counting on GOP fears of a holiday season closure to ensure Republican concessions during December talks."

Congressional leaders meet with President Trump on Tuesday to talk about the potential government shutdown and to work though the legislative to-do list.

Talks on spending caps are stuck, with a GOP offer to increase the Pentagon budget by more than $54 billion next year and nondefense limits by $37 billion being rejected by Democrats demanding balance between the two sides of the ledger.

Many Democrats whose votes are needed on the spending bills say they won’t vote for any legislation that includes Trump’s promised border wall. And he's "dead set" on his $1.6 billion request for a down payment on the project.

Those same Democrats also say Congress must act by year’s end to protect immigrants who were brought to the United States illegally as children and whose protected status is to lapse next year. Trump backs the idea despite issuing an executive order reversing Obama administration protections, starting next spring. Conservatives oppose involving the immigration issue in legislation to keep the government running.

Also on the agenda: hurricane relief, health care for children, the flood insurance program that expires Dec. 8, a program allowing warrantless electronic surveillance of foreigners by U.S. intelligence agencies that faces renewal.

"Trump has not really engaged on the year-end agenda, however, and his impulsiveness could be a liability,” says Taylor. Oh, yeah. That.

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Note to readers

Because of the Thanksgiving holiday, Citizen Cartwright will publish next on Monday, Nov. 27. Warm wishes to you and your family!

What repeal of ‘net neutrality’ rules means for you

The Federal Communications Commission released a plan Tuesday to dismantle regulations that ensure equal access to the internet, clearing the way for internet service companies to charge users more to see certain content and to curb access to some websites.

In case you’re preoccupied with a frenzy of Thanksgiving tasks, here is the bottom line, according to The New York Times:

"The biggest concern is that the internet will become pay-to-play technology with two tiers: one that has speedy service and one that doesn’t. The high-speed lane would be occupied by big internet and media companies, and affluent households. For everyone else there would be the slow lane.”

The details:

The proposal, by FCC Chairman Ajit Pai, repeals rules put in place by the Obama administration that prohibit high-speed internet service providers from stopping or slowing down the delivery of websites. They also prevent the companies from charging customers extra for high-quality streaming and other services.

Tim Wu, a law professor at Columbia University who's credited with coining the phrase “net neutrality,” says the repeal plan not only rolls back the Obama-era rules, it goes further. It specifically permits broadband carriers to block media content, Wu says, an added power that wasn't the case during the administration of George W. Bush.

“An allowance of blocking is really pretty shocking,” Wu says.

The current rules treat internet service providers such as Comcast, AT&T and Verizon as if they were utility companies that provide essential services, such as electricity. The rules mandate that they give equal access to all online content and apps.

The announcement set off a fight over free speech and control of the internet, pitting telecom giants like AT&T and Verizon against internet giants like Google and Amazon.

The internet companies say that rolling back the rules could make the telecom companies powerful gatekeepers to information and entertainment. The telecom companies say the existing rules prevent them from offering customers a wider selection of services at higher and lower price points.

“Under my proposal, the federal government will stop micromanaging the internet,” Pai said in a statement. “Instead, the FCC would simply require internet service providers to be transparent about their practices so that consumers can buy the service plan that’s best for them.”

If broadband companies violate terms of service or overstep in any way, Pai says the Federal Trade Commission will be able to step in and take action.

But former FCC chairman Tom Wheeler, who headed the agency when it passed the 2015 rules, said Pai's proposal "raises hypocrisy to new heights."

"They are 'protecting consumers' by disavowing responsibility to do just that," Wheeler said in a statement. "They are providing for 'better regulation' by giving authority to the FTC, which has no regulatory authority."

Pai's proposal would spare telecom giants from state legislators and regulators who might want to police net neutrality. It says that state and local regulations attempting to regulate broadband in ways that run counter to the federal rules would be pre-empted.

Pai distributed his alternative plan to other FCC commissioners on Tuesday and promised to release his entire proposal on Wednesday.

The commissioners vote on the issue on Dec. 14.

Although the FCC’s two Democrats say they'll oppose the proposal, the repeal is likely to prevail; Republicans dominate 3-2. The vote for net neutrality in 2015 also was along party lines, but Democrats dominated then.

Basically, expect lots of lobbying before the vote and legal action after.