And
plunging over the cliff would be "devastating to the economy," says Erskine Bowles, who co-chaired the bipartisan Simpson-Bowles debt commission.
There's another one-third chance that "we'll go over the cliff and people will come to their senses in the first week or so," Bowles says. A third possibility, that a deal takes even longer, "will lead to chaos" he says.
The stock market hasn't factored in the possibility that the country will go over the fiscal cliff, says Bowles. "They don't think we're stupid enough to do that."
Bowles says that if it happens, the stock market will crash.
To contemplate going over the cliff is "like betting the country," says Alan Simpson. "Anyone with that attitude — party above America — is missing the boat."